The Fantrax Transactions you need to do this week: GW10
Get well soon Raúl!
This is edition five of the “Transactions” series and will focus on moves you can make to improve your Fantrax roster and give yourself a season-long advantage over the opposition in your league. These columns won’t talk too much about the very top tier players, it goes without saying that you should buy KDB if the opportunity arises, and only sell these players if the offer is ground-breakingly excellent.
I hope you recover well, Raúl Jiménez.
I considered making that the entire intro. Though I wrote about injuries in last week’s column, that was more thinking about fatigue and the accumulated impact, not something as abrupt and immediate as what Raúl had to deal with at the Emirates. Head injuries can have varying severity, so it’s best not to speculate right now about anything, only to wish him the best in his recovery.
Moving onto the regular business of transactions, I introduced the Value Index concept last time out, and discussed the idea of how it was going to allow me to build accountability into these transactions columns. Measuring is a key part of improving, after all. I realise it wasn’t 100% obvious how I planned to do that, so I’m going to explain it very briefly below, with the help of the scores from the previous edition (don’t worry, I won’t be doing this every single week).
There is a caveat to this, which is that I wouldn’t strongly recommend looking at such a small time period to assess a move, as they will be highly impacted by things like fixture variation or one time squad rotation, so please take this with a pinch of salt - this isn’t the accountability part, that comes further down the line, this is just showing behind the curtain as to how it will work, as it’s much easier when there’s a specific example!
So the way that this works is as follows:
Whatever the value score is in the week that I make a recommendation, that gets “locked” in and that’s what I measure from
Over time (really should be assessed with at least 5 games) changes to that score will either have made it a “positive” or “negative” value impact
If a player gets injured, I’ll lock in whatever their value impact score was at the point they’re injured
At the end of the season, we add it all up and we see how much value we could’ve added!
Anyhow, now I’ve hopefully explained how that works, on we go to this weeks’ transactions!
Buy of the Week: Buy Raheem Sterling (Current Value Index score: 88)
There’s a theme to my “Buy of the Week” names. First Bowen, then Martial, then Adama. Clearly, I always want the names that are driving their managers a bit crazy. And this one is no exception.
All pre-season, the consensus was that if you want to avoid Pep roulette, you go for KDB and you go for Sterling. And that’s pretty much proved to be true, with Raheem starting 7 out of 9 possible games, before an International break injury seemed to dislodge him from the starting eleven. But what hasn’t been there yet is the Round 1-worthy production. Put simply: 8.1 PPStart is not enough for a man that people were sinking the 5th overall pick into.
Where is it going wrong, you might ask? For me, this one is entirely down to City’s struggles. So whether you think this is a good tip or not pretty much comes down to how much you believe in the resurgence. Personally, I think City have been notably better since Gabriel Jesus returned to the side, with only the tough games against Liverpool and Tottenham seeing them record single game xG values of under 2. To put this into context, this is still pretty depressed compared to their lofty peaks last year, but is a clear sign of improvement from how they started the season.
If you believe that this is a sign that City are trending in the right direction, now is the time to go out and get Sterling. Despite Ferran Torres’s pretty good start, he’s not the player Sterling is. I’d go after Sterling pretty aggressively anywhere you can and see whether any managers are losing patience.
Add Conor Gallagher (Current Value Index score: 63
With a pre-season ADP of 415, it feels like probably only people in Conor’s immediate family, or people that read my “One Midfielder from each round” piece and wanted a gamble in Round 16, were looking at the young Chelsea man.
What a difference a good loan makes. Let’s not go mad on this one. He’s 20 years old and has played in 6 Premier League games and he is playing for West Brom, who will have good days (like their result against fellow strugglers Sheffield United) and bad days. But what I like to look for if we’ve got someone new into the league is signs of growth.
His goal against Sheffield United was actually probably the least impressive part of the last three weeks for me. It was an opportunistic effort that went in. Great if you were streaming him, not great if you are hoping for outside the box efforts to fly in every week. Instead, I focus on the fact that he had games against Tottenham and Manchester United where he played very well, matching up against difficult opponents, and he probably was pretty unlucky to have not at least assisted a penalty in the United game to go along with his 4 KP.
So to sum up, you’re probably going to be using Conor sparingly, in good matchups only, for now. But if he continues to mature and learn as his minutes on the pitch go up, he has all the attributes required to be a really good Fantrax midfielder. It’s another lottery ticket grab, but it’s probably free (17% ownership as I write).
Sell Benjamin Mendy (Current Value Index score: 10) / Kyle Walker (Current Value Index score: 92)
A big part of smart Fantrax dealing is being opportunistic. And these two names are not names I want to be relying on in most Fantrax leagues, despite the fact that Walker is likely to start most weeks on a good Premier League team. This is actually somewhat setting myself up to take a value hit, as I suspect that these two (particularly Mendy) are likely to end up with higher values at the end of the season than they have right now, just by virtue of starting.
But I’m not proposing you sell them based on their current index value (if anyone sees it, they’ll probably turn you down instantly anyway). I’m suggesting you sell based on the last game (and in Walker’s case the fact that the Sheffield United game was still in recent memory). If you can convince someone to give you an every week startable defender in exchange for one of these two names, on the basis of that performance, you absolutely should. Walker (7.7 PPS in 19/20) and Mendy (9.9 PPS but only 16 starts) have name value. Can you get someone like Coufal, who we know is definitely starting every week and has higher counting stat output than Walker? I’d certainly be trying to cash in if I have these two on my roster. Cancelo is really the only City defender I’m comfortable stashing.
Buy Kai Havertz (Current Value Index score: 106)
Covid-19 has created an opportunity here that seemed unlikely a few weeks back. Before contracting the virus, he had seemingly cemented his role as one of two “8s” in Frank Lampards first choice midfield, off the back of good displays in both the Premier League and the Champions League. Sure, the initial Fantrax outputs had been a bit up and down, but there was plenty to suggest both a floor and a ceiling for the young German. Then Covid hit and he was out of the team.
Make no mistake, Chelsea are a team you want to be a part of in Fantrax. I’d hazard a guess that they’re my most featured team so far (and it was very much a toss up between whether to feature Kai or his teammate Pulisic in this column this week) and that’s because they generate good points for Fantrax and that’s been tied to some quite good on-field play in their first ten games.
But unlike Chilwell, Silva, Ziyech and Werner, who we’ve seen a lot of output from as they’ve settled in at their new club, Kai still doesn’t feel like he has announced himself in the League yet. Make no mistake, it’s coming. As I review this, he’s just played an excellent assist into the feet of Olivier Giroud against Sevilla and has been generally very good as Chelsea have taken one of the more difficult European fixtures very much in their stride.
In terms of what I’d be willing to give up? I’d happily try to convert any good midfielder that I think is probably performing at their ceiling in a similar current output range without a second thought (the likes of Barnes, Gross, McGinn) and I’d be willing to give up names like Bowen or Pereira plus a secondary start-able piece (though would make sure the other manager knew how much it hurt me to do it). Sometimes you have to pay up to get the top talent. Chelsea know this as well as anyone, it seems!
Danny Welbeck (Current Value Index score: 116)
In this week’s edition of “wait, what?! Really?! In 2020?!” we are looking to the south coast of England, where Danny Welbeck is quietly putting up a portfolio of good scores down in Brighton.
If you’re feeling a degree of caution about this recommendation, I cannot blame you. The last time Danny Welbeck started more then 20 Premier League games, it was 2012. To put that into further context, Phil Foden was 12 years old, the Olympic Games were in London and Whitney Houston passed away. Feeling old? Me too…
But here’s the thing, he’s only 53% owned. So he’s totally free to pick up in a lot of leagues. So if in five games time, he’s injured and out of the team, you can thank him for his service and cut him loose. He’s got Southampton, Leicester and Fulham in his next three games. With full credit to @the_innergeek on Twitter, this chart tells you everything you need to know - Danny gets the two best matchups so far this season for forwards in the next three games.
So lets get him added and probably plugged straight in this weekend!
Sell Theo Walcott (Current Value Index score: 134)
Theo Walcott has been a pleasant surprise, having featured a couple of editions back as an “add” candidate, he’s only gone from strength to strength, particularly after the injury to Danny Ings. He’s averaging almost 90 minutes per game, he’s got a goal and three assists and he’s probably helped managers that have picked him up to a number of wins.
So why would you sell Theo? Well there are a couple of compelling reasons:
His value jump from his last five fixtures puts him in a position where he has sale value.
His scores are inflated heavily by his Goal and Assist dependence. Without his G+A, his highest score would’ve still been 13.5 but the rest would’ve been 6.5 or below. So there’s not that much of a floor here.
And he’s had a lot of opportunity to get those G+A as he’s spent most of his time at Southampton starting up front, in the absence of Ings. He will be back to the wing, presumably, in the near future.
I’ve explained a few times in these columns that anytime you can transfer risk out of your team and onto someone else’s, it’s probably a good idea to do that. On one hand, Theo is not a risk, because you probably added him for free. On the other hand, he has value now. And there’s a risk he loses it. Things move fast!
So in terms of what I’d try to get back for Theo Walcott, I would either try get back someone like Kalvin Phillips, who profiles as an every week starter with a solid floor of points, or I’d go after someone with a whole bunch of upside that is yet to perform. Maybe a message to the Saint-Maximin owner? Either way, if I can either get a safer (higher) floor or a higher ceiling player, Theo will have done wonders for my team for his short service!
Add Tanguy Ndombele (Current Value Index score: 88)
The big elephant in the room with me writing this, is that I will shout from the rooftops about how you want to try to find a roster of players that:
A) Start every week
B) Get as close to 90 minutes on the pitch as possible
It’s simple enough, if you’re not on the pitch for 20-30 minutes each game, you have less of an opportunity to get points than a player that plays the full 90. This is especially valid because the big, high-scoring events (e.g. goals) have a healthy degree of randomness thrown in on them (think about set pieces or loosely structured breakaway goals) that you have to be on the pitch to be in with a lottery ticket chance of benefitting from.
But there are some exceptions to this and Tanguy might be one. He’s not got loads in the way of G+A contribution so far (1G, 1A, which is something I’d probably like to see more of in a pretty efficient Spurs attack) but since establishing himself as a regular starter he’s put up some pretty credible scores, including in tough fixtures against Chelsea and Manchester City. His PPG listed on Fantrax is very low, dragged down by some sub performances (and a couple of duds) but he seems like he’s a rare player than can generate ghost point volume no matter whether he finishes the game or not.
There’s risk, so I wouldn’t go out to buy him if someone has already picked him up. But he could easily be a Walcott in a few weeks time who you’re able to pick up for free, then sell off the back of a few good performances. Just the sort I like!
Sell Wilfried Zaha (Current Value Index score: 239)
This one could bite me in the ass in my value impact score, and I know it. Going for it anyway though.
Wilf Zaha is an enigma. Last season, all his managers wanted were more goal contributions. And this season all they’ve got are goals. Literally. The only thing that he’s really done in Fantrax standard scoring leagues this year is get points from goals or assists. It’s frankly amazing that he’s done so well, given the thought of stripping away nearly all of his ghost points last year would’ve left him totally un-rosterable. His highest score without a goal contribution? 2 points (versus Chelsea). His average without goals is just under 0. He’s also about to hit a pretty horrible run of fixtures again, not to mention that he’s recovering from Covid-19.
The potential for explosiveness is what keeps him relevant. He’s hit 34 points in a game this year. So if I had Zaha on a team, I think I’d be trying to use that ceiling to trade him out. He still has more name value than most, even with the depressed value of the previous year. So I’d happily turn Zaha into a Pedro Neto or a Ross Barkley (if you trust his injury news), both of whom offer a good ceiling and a high floor. If you wanted to aim a bit higher, perhaps you could aim for someone like Ziyech, if the initial buzz of his first performances has been dampened by the Tottenham game? Or go after a premium defender (but who may not have hit their peak ceiling yet) like Reece James?
What I’m basically saying is go and trade the high ceiling, non-existent floor player for someone with a floor and a similar ceiling. It’s so easy when I say it like that, huh? If you put out the feelers in your league, you may be able to remove some of the risk of a 0 point score, without sacrificing your chances of a 30 point game.
That’s it for this week. Thanks for reading, as always. And if you’ve got any comments or questions, I’m available on Twitter, in the comments below and can also be found on the DraftEPL Discord!
I'm tempted by a trade offer for havertz where someone will take auba from me. I'm an arsenal fan so there's that but I'm wondering about good potential from havertz. If I made the trade I could possibly drop under or Eze for Ollie Mcburnie as a backup forward. Thoughts? Current roster is Maddison, pulisic, James, Eze, Bowen and under. Sterling, auba, lookman, benrhama and raphinha.