GW17 Preview
A rapidfire run-through of the matchups
As the December game schedule makes decent longer-form articles basically impossible to write (at least in the way I’ve typically written them), we will have a short change of format this month. I will look at each matchup in terms of Start / Sit decisions and streamer options. Regular format content will return once the games get back into a regular pattern again.
Happy New Year to you all!
One last 2020 article. The festive injuries / rotation bites hard, so if you get caught in it, don’t panic too much. Last GW, I found myself without Reece James, Vladimir Coufal, Wesley Fofana, Jarrod Bowen, Ross Barkley, Kevin de Bruyne, Aguero / Jesus and Ollie McBurnie from the usual starting lineup. In my mind, the worst thing to do would be to cut someone with real season-long value, chasing after this one strange week (see also, the upcoming week 18).
The Fixtures:
Note: It’s unclear whether we will see additional Covid-19 hit games, with outbreaks at City and Fulham still seemingly too soon to properly assess, as well as some sporadic cases elsewhere. At the time of writing, all games are listed as going ahead.
Game 1: Everton v West Ham
Notes: West Ham rotated heavily last time out in their 0-0 draw with Southampton. Everton got a week of rest, with the cancellation of their game. As such, I expect strong lineups from both. It’s almost a shame this one is so early, given it is hopefully one of the more predictable pair of lineups.
Starts: DCL, always. Richarlison also has a chance of recovering in time, which is a big boost for Everton. And for as long as James Rodriguez is out, you can probably start Gylfi Sigurdsson, though I wouldn’t consider this an easy matchup. On the West Ham side, I still consider Vladimir Coufal, Aaron Cresswell, Jarrod Bowen and Tomas Soucek to be startable most weeks. It’s also well worth monitoring the fitness of Michail Antonio who got some minutes in the last game.
Streams: This actually isn’t one of my favourites for picking a streamer in. On the Everton side, Alex Iwobi (33%) is the most likely impact player of the commonly available options if he makes the starting lineup, but I wouldn’t have this down as a good matchup for him. On the West Ham side, you’re doing a lot of lineup watching but the name that stands out, on talent alone, is still Said Benrahma (31%) who is still finding his feet, hasn’t started in the last two, but would be a good choice against Everton’s oft-depleted full back position here.
Sits: I’ve recommended Yerry Mina a few times, as well as nodded to Michael Keane a few times in recent weeks. I don’t like them here. West Ham have only failed to score twice in their last ten games: one against Chelsea and one came last week with their heavily rotated lineup. I also wouldn’t choose to start Doucoure or Gomes if they start. There’ll be better value on most waiver wires again this week.
Game 2: Man United v Aston Villa
Notes: Villa manager Dean Smith will be hoping his comments on squad rotation don’t come back to bite him, with him having rolled out an unchanged team through much of the festive period. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer also has played strong lineups throughout the congested fixtures, but with some changes each game.
Starts: I won’t waste more time telling you to start Bruno or Rashford. I’m also comfortable with starting Martial and / or Cavani if they start against Villa. You can also start Maguire but beware that he’s probably pretty unlikely to see CS points this week, making him less attractive a proposition as he is in friendlier matchups. I don’t know what to say about Paul Pogba. But if he starts, you should probably start him. Just don’t be gambling much on him getting on that team sheet. Managers know at this point that you don’t drop Jack Grealish. Who knew El Ghazi would be joining him? I don’t know how long the El Ghazi train will keep rolling, but as long as it does, stay on for the ride. Similar sentiments around Bertrand Traore. I’m also still on board with Ollie Watkins who, despite a mini-goal drought, is capable of points explosions at any point. Also keep an eye out for the potential return of Ross Barkley who has been carefully managed throughout but deserves to be back in.
Streams: With Ole having started Telles last time out, this is probably a Luke Shaw (48%) week and he’s usable here. Although I would imagine he’s gone in most active leagues. The deeper cut on the United side would come from the central midfield positions where I have a feeling this could be a Fred (10%) game. If he starts, he’s streamable in a matchup where he’ll have to be plenty involved. He’s averaging over 8 points in December. There’s really not anyone Villa side with low enough of ownership to be worth a streamer recommendation, which really is a compliment to what Dean Smith and co are doing.
Sits: I feel like I oscillate between putting AWB in starts and sits article to article. Presumably it’s easy to see why I’m going to fade him this week if I can - he’s got a tough matchup here and I’m not trusting the defensive points here. I also have to apologise to John McGinn because I’ve said he needs to show me something before he gets back to being a start recommendation. Well he did show something last time out. I’m just still wanting to see it as a consistent thing again, so he spends one more week here (though I’d understand anyone that wanted to disagree). I’d also fade the Villa defenders here, even though they get Tyrone Mings back, along with Eric Bailly.
Game 3: Tottenham v Leeds United
Notes: Spurs got another impromptu rest, so Jose can likely roll out his strongest lineup. Leeds played beleaguered West Brom on Tuesday, rolling out with very little rotation. But the extra time between games likely allows Bielsa to do the same again here. Expect strong lineups here.
Starts: Spurs remain a very “funneled” Fantrax offense. If you’re finding yourself even considering benching Harry Kane or Son then I can only assume you’re in a one team league. This week especially, you have to start them. Leeds defensively allow lots of points opportunities for the top forwards. Similarly, Leeds tend to also create a lot of points opportunities for their attacking players and I’m not sure what matchup you should be thinking of benching them in either, at this point. Starting Bamford, Rodrigo, Raphinha, Klich and Harrison has rarely steered anyone too badly wrong in the first half of the season.
Streams: Last time out, Spurs played with Ndombele (49%) behind Kane and Son and if he starts again, you can pick him up. However, I also wouldn’t be that surprised if we saw Steven Bergwijn (26%) back in the lineup here. And although he’s had a few false dawns this season, I don’t mind him here. On the Leeds side, similar to Villa, most of their startable names are rostered pretty widely. I’m looking elsewhere, barring serious rotation.
Sits: Leeds defenders. Spurs defenders. All the defenders. If you want to make a case for the Spurs full backs / wing backs (depending on the lineup chosen), then I hear it. But I’d probably still lean to the sit. I also don’t love Kalvin Phillips here in what will likely be a very tough midfield day, though in deeper leagues you may not have the luxury of benching him.
Game 4: Crystal Palace v Sheffield United
Notes: Roy Hodgson has had an up and down Christmas… From thumpings at the hands of Liverpool and ten man Aston Villa to drawing with (a much rotated) Leicester. Sheffield United can’t catch a break so far. Palace arrive after 5 days of rest, 1 more than their relegation threatened opposition.
Starts: If Palace want to show us that the game against Liverpool and Villa are the exception, rather than the rule, they have to do something here. And I think they probably will. Christian Benteke, Wilf Zaha, Eberechi Eze, Andros Townsend, Jeff Schlupp and Patrick Van Aanholt - if you’re rostering them and you don’t want to start them in this week, you may as well drop them! On the Sheffield United side, barring a recovery for Ollie McBurnie, there’s really not a lot here.
Streams: If Palace do rotate at all up front, you can make use of anyone that gets rotated in here. Jordan Ayew (34%) or Michy Batshuayi (9%) would both come with reasonable likelihood of attacking returns here. From Sheffield United, you’ve probably got your pick if you do want to brave this tie. Outside of McBurnie, no one is more than 50% owned. And one of them could have a reasonable day and be a solid streamer. I can’t pretend to be able to pick who, though. So I’ll be avoiding them and looking elsewhere.
Sits: Sheffield United. And Palace defenders other than Van Aanholt.
Game 5: Brighton v Wolves
Notes: Brighton are unfortunate to be underperforming in defense and in attack. Wolves are struggling with creating chances and have lost Raul Jimenez. So 0-0 incoming? Probably not, but this is a “get right” opportunity for one of the two.
Starts: On the Wolves side, you can start their attackers. Pedro Neto is as consistent as they come, Daniel Podence is playing the season of his life so far and Adama Traore is still a must-start on the (admittedly a bit more infrequent than we’d like) occasions he makes the eleven. I don’t think this is an occasion to fade the wing backs either, so I’d look to start Nelson Semedo too and back him to refind some of his earlier season form. Saiss is also a solid selection this week, having worked his way back into the lineup. On the Brighton side, things are looking a bit more challenging. Tariq Lamptey remains out and Graham Potter is rotating between midfielders. Solly March is usable any given week. You start Pascal Gross if he starts, but there remains the rotation risk here, with him having missed minutes through the festive calendar. With Welbeck also likely to miss out, Neal Maupay does enter into the conversation, but I’m not turning here if I’ve got a choice.
Streams: Based on the semi-established pattern, this could be a Marcal (6%) week. And to break with tradition, I’d consider him here, even if I’d still prefer to see Ait-Nouri for the higher output potential. On the Brighton side, Yves Bissouma (18%) looks an ascending talent in this league. He seems destined to not be on the South Coast that long. This one isn’t a ceiling play, but if you need a good quality starter, I don’t mind him at all.
Sits: Wolves central midfielders occasionally turn up. Not often enough to trust though. Brighton central defenders even less so. Leave both position groups on the bench here unless you’ve got no other choice.
Game 6: West Brom v Arsenal
Notes: The Premier League dream can turn ugly quickly. No side is learning that as quickly as West Brom, who followed up a great (and unexpected) point against Liverpool with a beating from Leeds. Mikel Arteta looked to be struggling with that too. But are the two recent fixtures signs of improvement? If they are, this is a great week to continue it.
Starts: In the pre-season, I wrote a piece about age curves and how we should project forwards for players that have made breakthroughs at a young age. In particular, this part feels prescient now:
Recently, Saka has been getting good run in an attacking position and building on that promise. The reason he’s exciting is his age means it wouldn’t be unthinkable for his game to take big leaps, in short spaces of time. Imagine how good his output could be, if Arsenal could just be functional! You also probably still have to start Aubameyang and Lacazette if they start. And in this tie, if you don’t feel you can start Willian, you should probably drop him (don’t drop him). On the West Brom side, Big Sam’s revolution is pretty much exactly what you’d expect. And it’s not really been good for anyone. You’re going to want to fade them here, unless you’re braving Sam Johnstone.
Streams: One of the pleasant things for Arsenal fans has been the play of Emile Smith-Rowe (32%) over the last couple of games. If he plays again, you can start him. But do temper your expectations a little, as he’s still very young and inexperienced. There is a ceiling here, by the looks of it. But we have no idea about a floor. Things were ugly for West Brom last time out and only four players hit positive figures in points. Even in their good result against Liverpool, there wasn’t much in the way of points from West Brom, outside of the goal and assist. Look elsewhere.
Sits: You’ve got to sit West Brom players until we see something more out of them, or a friendlier matchup. Early evidence is that things were better for Fantrax under Bilic. And that’s not saying a lot. Though it’s too early to make concrete judgements, I don’t have a lot of optimism for their use on an ongoing basis either. Sorry West Brom fans, I do hope I’m wrong.
Game 7: Burnley v Fulham
Notes: Fulham got themselves an extra few days rest, but have positive Covid cases in the camp. I’ve not seen any reporting on how many cases they had, who has been affected or how bad those cases were. I have zero faith in starting my Fulham players without that information, unless desperate. Burnley picked up a much needed win against Sheffield United last time out.
Starts: Burnley’s defensive set of Pope, Tarkowski, Mee remain starts against pretty much everyone bar Man City (who they seem to like gifting large wins to). Depending on the extent of Fulham’s potential Covid enforced changes, you might want to be looking at Chris Wood here too, who could benefit from any weaknesses in the Fulham defence. On the Fulham side, Zambo-Anguissa, Lookman and Robinson remain on my startable list. But as I can’t be sure they’re not the players with positive Covid tests, it’s hard to back them as solid starts.
Streams: Brownhill (43%) remains one of the most consistent streams going - don’t be put off by the Wolves / Sheffield United results. He’s usable. On the Fulham side, monitor what lineup they put out. If you get a sighting of Kenny Tete (6%) or Tom Cairney (24%) they’re not horrible starts. But again, temper the expectations heavily here.
Sits: It’s hard to have faith in Dwight McNeil at this point. Make him show you output before you turn the keys over to him again. If you’ve got the depth to plan to be without them, it probably makes sense to not rely too heavily on anyone travelling up from Craven Cottage.
Game 8: Newcastle v Leicester
Notes: Newcastle are coming off the back of a hard-fought draw against Liverpool. Leicester off the back of a disappointing draw to Palace, having started a much rotated team. Very different responses to getting a point, you’d imagine.
Starts: Leicester are likely to recall most of their first team for this one. Jamie Vardy, James Maddison, Harvey Barnes, Timothy Castagne and Wesley Fofana should come back in and straight back into your lineups. With no offence to the stand-ins, Leicester should have been able to put Palace away in their last game and they didn’t. Newcastle have fewer must start players, but a special mention has to go out to Karl Darlow who, despite not being first choice at the start of the season, has shone brightly and kept Newcastle in a number of games - including against Liverpool. There’s also no real good reason to drop Callum Wilson if he’s passed fit.
Streams: I don’t like to chase big defensive performances. But if you’re stuck looking for a streamer at this point in the Gameweek, there may not be a whole lot you can rely on from the last two games. So if you have to turn your head towards Ciaran Clark (7%) and hope that he brings his midweek form into this game, I can’t argue too much. He did a lot on the defensive side, even without the CS points his Gameweek was respectable. But this isn’t a confident stream. On the Leicester side, Cengiz Under (17%) has missed the last few matchday squads with a muscle injury. This one may come too soon. Assuming he doesn’t make it, the next best option is the return of ex-Geordie favourite Ayoze Perez (53%) who could well get the nod again.
Sits: I don’t really want much to do with Newcastle here. Off the back of the midweek result, Leicester is a tough encore. I’ve suggested Clark above. I wouldn’t touch many other members of the defence. And with Saint-Maximin, Fraser and Shelvey all likely to miss out on fitness, this isn’t a midfield to covet either.
Game 9: Chelsea v Man City
Notes: Chelsea have had a rough few games, losing to Arsenal and drawing to Villa. Man City have had a week since their last game, but are dealing with a Covid outbreak of their own, with at least Gabriel Jesus and Kyle Walker affected. For now, the game looks set to go ahead.
Starts: There haven’t been that many good news stories for Chelsea over the last few games. But if Fantrax managers are looking for one, it’s that Christian Pulisic has made it through two games in a week. I would be borderline amazed if he starts a third in a row but you’re starting him if he does. Last time he played City, he dominated the game, including a highlight reel goal that Benjamin Mendy will not want to see again. My suspicion is that this game comes too early for Hakim Ziyech but if he starts, you play him. Outside of this, I actually think this is the type of fixture that could suit Chelsea. With City likely to dominate time of possession, Chelsea can play in a counter punching style, which might help players like Timo Werner break some of their current funk (though I would say that appears a little overblown to my eye). I’m also still willing to back both Chelsea full backs, if Reece James and Ben Chilwell are passed fit to play. I am not interested in their deputies. And you can rely on set pieces to support Mason Mount’s points floor. On the City side, there’s no reason to rest anyone that you’ve got rostered here. KDB, Mahrez, Sterling, Aguero / Ferran Torres, even the likes of Phil Foden, should he start. I spoke of optimism for Chelsea above but if you’re approaching this fixture from the City side, Chelsea look out of sorts and you won’t find a better time to draw them.
Streams: For Chelsea, the positives of the last two games can be counted on one hand. That said, the performances of Callum Hudson-Odoi (45%) do count. It’s been a strange and difficult 18 months for the winger, whose achilles injury couldn’t have come at a worse time. Though he made it back last season, he was (and perhaps still is) clearly carrying the after-effects of the injury still. The last game in particular, he looked to have started to shake it. Like the other young Englishman Saka, this is exciting because he has a tonne of potential. He may not start this, but if he does, you can stream him. For City, the likely absence of Cancelo opens up a defensive full back spot and you could potentially consider Mendy. However, remember what I said earlier about how difficult he found this matchup post-lockdown. It’s a gamble, for sure.
Sits: Centre backs. All of them. Chelsea will turn back to Zouma and Silva and they’re probably the most startable of the set. But is there really not a better option in an earlier game? I also am not particularly interested in much of the central midfielders on show. You’re also sitting Kai Havertz until he shows he’s out of his Covid funk.
Game 10: Southampton v Liverpool
Notes: Southampton come in off the back of consecutive 0-0 draws, with very minimal rotation. Liverpool are coming in probably feeling disappointed to have drawn with Newcastle.
Starts: All of the attackers! Liverpool have done some rotation over the festive period, but with this looking a tough fixture, I’d expect most of their main strike force to be started. And you should start them too. You’re also starting Trent and Robertson pretty much without fail. On the Southampton side, Danny Ings has been struggling with a hamstring injury and has gone three games without a score higher than 3 points. But can you really bench him? He’s still starting for most teams, though the fitness concern is growing here. Che Adams, Theo Walcott and James Ward-Prowse are every-week names too at this point. I’m going to fade Southampton defenders here, but if you want to start a centre back, you could always tempt me by the defensive counting stats of Bednarek.
Streams: Curtis Jones (37%) and Naby Keita (27%) were rotating in that third midfield position for Liverpool, but Keita picked up a muscular injury. Either is streamable again here, but both may find their playing time at risk with the return of Thiago. Moussa Djenepo (25%) is definitely a rotation risk, because Southampton have a lot of wide midfield competition. But he’s looking part of the picture. You could argue that this is a tough matchup and that this isn’t one to pick him in. I would counter that one of his best performances of the year was up against Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Manchester United. And AWB is a more defensively minded player than Trent.
Sits: Like clockwork, once again I’m looking to fade Liverpool CBs, Southampton full backs and the defensive midfielders. Everyone else is usable to some degree, if you’re desperate at the end of the Gameweek.
Thanks for reading in 2020 and I’m looking forward to getting out more in 2021!
Really liking the "temporary" format, IMO it's the best game week rundown out there. Would be great if it became permanent.
I have a few questions for you:
1. I have two healthy defenders this week. Are you dropping anyone on this roster (https://ibb.co/z5sWQGV) to get PVA/Adarabioyo/Evans in?
2. Assuming his form continues, do you see Hudson-Odoi retaining a starting spot if Pulisic+Ziyech+Werner are fully fit?
3. When's the time to snag Jonny (Wolves)?
Cheers