Player points forecasting tools: Age
How might we try to use age curves in our drafts?
This is the first article in a short series looking at how we should use forecasting tools available to us to assess player scoring and to attempt to make more accurate predictions about what we might see in the upcoming season.
In August 2019, the Premier League published an article discussing the average age of player in the Premier League. 2019/20 was notable in this respect, as the average value (26 years and 265 days) was the second lowest Premier League season at that point of the season. Also notable was that we saw Chelsea and Manchester United turning into youth projects, helmed by Frank Lampard and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (themselves relatively young in their managerial careers).
Why does age matter? Most football fans are familiar with the idea of a player peak. The concept being that the average player will improve year on year until a certain point, then hit their peak, followed by a period of decline. So as Fantrax managers, particularly when looking at the draft ahead, age is a valuable data point we can use to think about three things:
Which players would we expect, given the same opportunity, to improve in the next playing year?
Which players should we expect to output steady Fantrax output into the next year, because they are around their peak?
Which players should we expect to see their output start to decline?
In this article, I’m going to look at using the concept of peak and use age curves to identify a few players that you might want to look at in drafts next year as potentially improving assets. I’m also going to highlight some examples of where making a gamble on age related improvement might be a good idea. To understand a little more about age curves, I would suggest this article as a high-level explainer, as it lays out very well the different positions and how important age is as a predictor for real football recruitment. Most importantly: I’ve just highlighted some of the players I think could be interesting. I would encourage you to consider looking yourself at players in certain age categories and deciding whether or not to bump them up and down in your individual rankings.
Looking at last season, who stands out as interesting on an age curve basis?
The first two names are incredibly obvious, as playing more than ten 90s in the Premier League at 17 is an incredibly rare achievement. So Mason Greenwood and Bukayo Saka are already achieving things well beyond what you would expect based on their age and look really exciting prospects. There are also unsurprising names such as Phil Foden, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Moise Kean who come with breakout potential based on their statistical output but haven’t managed to get on the pitch enough to build on limited minutes (though Foden looks set to make the step up next year). Next up is a category of intriguing semi-regulars, such as the likes of Harvey Barnes, Moussa Djenepo and Reece James who have flashed tantalising potential but have either had uneven usage or variable output. And lastly, we have our “super-star” category in this age range, covering players like Marcus Rashford, Christian Pulisic, Trent Alexander-Arnold and even Dwight McNeil (yes, Dwight McNeil is still only 20).
The superstars really aren’t important for this article. We’re all drafting them high and even if they only repeated their output from last season, we’d be delighted. The thought that there are potentially gears to go up into makes them more appealing too, but it’s not the main reason we are drafting them. Where we will start our focus is at the level just below.
Harvey Barnes - Midfielder - 307 Fantrax Points, 8.53 PPG - ADP: 77.71
I don’t have to write much about Harvey, he’s already getting drafted fairly high and certainly well above his PPG. The only note that I will make about him is that he struggled to keep up with npxG last season. If his finishing skill improves with age, he could easily over-perform his draft slot. Draft him, feel good about it. At the very worst, he’ll perform like he did this year. Other options in his range include Wilfried Ndidi and N’Golo Kante. I’m a big fan of both but neither present you with week winning potential in the same way 2020/21 Harvey Barnes might!
Moussa Djenepo - Midfielder - 128 Fantrax Points, 7.11 PPG - ADP: 139.62
Moussa had an up and down year last year. But he’s 21 and was in his first season in a new league. He only managed to get on the pitch for ten 90s and struggled for a run in the team. But there were extenuating personal circumstances and an unfortunately timed red card in the mix. At this ADP, your choices would be between Moussa Djenepo as your fourth or fifth midfield option, or someone like Fabinho / Wijnaldum. Both of those players are waiver streamer quality in most leagues. If your league lets Moussa slide, grab him comfortably.
Reece James - Defender - 173.75 Fantrax Points, 7.24 PPG - ADP: 72.81
Lets start with the complication here. Chelsea look set to sign Ben Chilwell. Their club captain plays right back. There is a scenario in which you would have to spend pick 72 or earlier on a player that ends up being in a rotation. But that’s looking at his current ADP. If Chilwell signs and Reece starts to slide, savvy managers will snap him up. He has depressed stats from xGA because Chelsea were a car crash defensively last year and he also found many of his very good crosses into the box were not met by an equally good finish. If he continues to settle and improve as a Premier League full-back and Chelsea improve back to what their numbers suggest, Reece could be a week to week match winner. Other defenders in this range include Joao Cancelo and John Egan. Give me the youngster over both every day of the week. There are no fewer question marks about Cancelo’s spot, but he’s unlikely to see jumps in his output from what he currently is. Reece might.
Lets move on now to players that have flashed perhaps even higher potential, but struggled to get onto the pitch as much:
Phil Foden - Midfielder - 172.5 Fantrax Points, 7.50 PPG - ADP: 36.11
This one should be quick. Anyone who has watched Foden has seen the potential in this young man’s boots. Plus, Manchester City attackers just rack up points due to their style and habit of scoring lots of goals. Honestly, the only reason to not consider Phil Foden a steal in drafts is that his role is undefined. His output is good and his ceiling is up there with the very best. His price is high, though. This is a fun pick and I understand why people make it.
Callum Hudson-Odoi - Forward - 134 Fantrax Points, 6.09 PPG - ADP: 133.25
Callum’s had a rough year. Achilles injuries take time to come back from and unfortunately for Callum, he managed to pair up his slow return to his physical peak with off the pitch dramatics. But that shouldn’t distract you from the fact that Callum Hudson-Odoi has incredible potential. He barely got on the pitch, yet made 5 goals for his team-mates. He was behind the pace, yet still managed 30 successful take-ons. With an ADP of 133.25, he’s practically going free. Yes, Jay Rodriguez or Joelinton have a clearer path to getting on the pitch. But you don’t really want them if they get there. If Callum continues to develop and is in better physical condition after his injury recovery, he’s worth a flier. If he was to end up on loan to another Premier League team, projecting him to perform as well as the likes of Dwight McNeil last season is not a leap. If you are eyeing up your final reserve spot, you could probably do a lot worse than a dart of Callum. Remember, drafting safe Forward 5s is not ever going to win you a league.
Moise Kean - Forward - 113.5 Fantrax Points, 3.91 PPG - ADP: 158.78
Ok, a disclaimer. Moise didn’t make this category just based on last season, despite the fact that he did still put up pretty good xG+xA numbers per 90 (0.56) in his very limited time on the pitch at Everton. This also isn’t a flash in the pan, as his numbers at Juventus were also in that region (0.60).
Those Fantrax points are definitely not pleasant to look at. But Moise is practically free, with an ADP of 158.78. He’s going into his second season in the league and he has a Manager in Carlo Ancelotti who is famously great at man management. It’s hard to make a case for Moise leapfrogging either of the forwards ahead of him. But injuries happen. And this is a year for rotation, based on the fixture list. If Moise gets a run of games, his numbers suggest he could contribute. As with Callum, this is a lottery ticket. But why not have at least one lottery ticket on your bench?
And lastly, a word on the phenomenon that is…
Mason Greenwood - Forward - 209 Fantrax Points, 6.74 PPG - ADP: 41.21
Let’s start with the obvious. Mason Greenwood is doing things at 17 that not many other forwards have done. It’s important to remember that development isn’t linear or predictable but there’s a lot of reason to be genuinely excited if you are a Manchester United or England fan. He over-hit his xG pretty dramatically during United’s post-restart run and I would be highly confident in declaring that unsustainable. But at the same time, where his goals might drop, his general play should improve with first team minutes and with that would come more ghost points. Unsurprisingly for a player of his age, there are areas that he needs to improve in the defensive phase of the game, as well as with some of his off the ball play. But honestly, anyone that’s spending pick 40 on Mason couldn’t care less if he’s helping Wan-Bissaka or not! Personally this price is a bit high for me, but of all the players I’ve discussed, except perhaps Foden, Mason seems the one who might have the highest overall ceiling. Especially if Manchester United do not sign competition on that right wing (looking at you Mr Sancho).
And a special mention for Bukayo Saka who looks a very good player but has challenges around his specific role that prevent me from really having a strong opinion on him either way. If an Arsenal insider knew that Saka was going to play significant minutes on the wing, they should be delighted drafting him at his ADP and enjoying a victory sip of their drink of choice. I’ll be avoiding this year. Won’t be at all surprised if next year he’s much higher up the list, though.
Remember, when going into your drafts, though it might feel comforting to grab a 28 year old who has scored 7 PPG his entire Fantrax career, those picks are really not how anyone wins titles. Balancing your roster with reliable floor points scorers and players with the potential to have breakout seasons is a possible path to Fantrax glory.