The Fantrax Transactions you need to do this week: GW24
Just 14 GWs to go!
This is edition seven of the “Transactions” series and will focus on moves you can make to improve your Fantrax roster and give yourself a season-long advantage over the opposition in your league. These columns won’t talk too much about the very top tier players, it goes without saying that you should buy KDB if the opportunity arises, and only sell these players if the offer is ground-breakingly excellent.
With a game every 3 days, you’d be forgiven for Premier League fatigue, at this point. I’ve talked before in these columns about how this season is a strange, even-more-variance filled crap-shoot. But what that means is that this is the point in the season where you can really take advantage, if you can still bring yourself to check the lineups on a regular basis and you’re keeping an eye on moves that you can make. In the majority of leagues, there will be managers that are flagging (whether temporarily or dropping off fully) and they may have their eye off the ball.
In this column, as well as the return of the value index, I’ll also be making use of another piece of information: “Last 5 Full Starts”
As shorthand, this lets us see players that are massively overperforming or underperforming their season long value level and lets us look for players that may be over or undervalued. Prime buy-low / sell-high candidates!
As a side note: once again, you’re going to see a few of Tuchel’s Chelsea names in here. Naturally, they’re a side with a lot of disruption right now, so player valuations can fluctuate rapidly and this presents opportunity to make bets on specific players. I know, I know. West Brom also went through a managerial change. But I’m (hopefully understandably) a bit less excited by that, despite the fact that there have been some OK fantasy days out of some of Sam’s new faces.
Buy of the Week: Buy Said Benrahma (Value Index Score: 40; Last 5: 9.6)
Said almost made it into the column last time out, as I mentioned on Twitter. He seems to have turned a bit of a corner in terms of opportunity to get on the pitch at West Ham (due to a combination of form, injury and his contract being made permanent). And he’s kept that place since then, further cementing his spot as a must buy.
Now I can hear you thinking “But his points haven’t been anything special”. And your brain isn’t deceiving you. They haven’t. That’s what makes him such a good buy. This is a player with a tonne of potential, who is getting on the pitch now. It’s a good bet that things will click for him. Especially as anyone that has held him through the lean times in terms of minutes may now be frustrated by the output levels so far.
It’s not ideal that he’s listed as Forward. But someone at West Ham probably should be, given Antonio’s classification and Haller’s exit… But as the 3rd or 4th forward on a Fantrax roster, he could be a real X-Factor down the home stretch. And it’s unlikely he costs that much to buy at the moment.
Add Ollie McBurnie (Value Index Score: 105; Last 5: 11.1)
The shoulder injury that limited the Sheffield United forward has seen his ownership plummet (down to 41%) and his in-game PPG value to drop dramatically. Normally, I’d take note if a player started three games and played under 50 minutes in them. In this case, I’m ignoring it entirely.
You could argue that Mcburnie demonstrates an issue in the standard scoring systems that we use. He clearly shouldn’t be as valuable as he is based on impact in the real game. But unless your scoring is going to change mid-season, that’s not your problem. He gets points. If your team can turn down a player with his consistency and non-goal reliance, you don’t need this column, you’re winning your league already!
If he’s coming basically for free, he’s hard to turn down!
Sell Kieran Tierney (Value Index Score: 78; Last 5: 15.1)
This one basically comes down to two things:
Do you believe in Arsenal?
Do you believe in Tierney as a Fantrax player?
I’m mixed on 1. I’m down on 2. This is a risky one, given his Value Index score is already low, so by just being a solid contributor he could show a value increase. But because of his injury (another reason to perhaps want to move him out) his most recent scores still show as 10.75, 39.5, 10.25. That is very good output, even if pretty reliant on GACS.
Can you convince a manager to buy on that basis? I’d certainly be trying! And if you are getting cold feet, remember that, for the most part, the best predictor of a players future output is their past output. And Tierney’s not lit up the Fantrax stat sheets for the majority of his time in the league. It’s a great sell opportunity right now.
Add Kenny Tete (Value Index Score: 59; Last 5: 10.5)
Kenny Tete is a good footballer, with an injury record. With no offence to the Craven Cottage faithful, that’s probably the main reason he was available so easily this Summer.
And he’s performing. In his last 5 full starts, he’s been worth 10.8 points on average. For Fulham. So why is he 28% owned? He’s about to go into a run of games where he faces Burnley, Sheffield United and Crystal Palace.
Even if you drop him immediately after that run of games, chances are he can provide an impact for your team through this period. Get him added. It’s literally impossible to lose with this one. (Editorial Disclaimer: it’s not).
Buy Reece James (Value Index Score: 157; Last 5: 8.9)
I’ll start by declaring my view that Reece James absolutely has “made the leap” this year and looks every bit a top full-back. Chelsea were at their best this season when he was given permission to go and attack. Yet, he was a bit unlucky to not see more of a return for his marauding runs and tempting crosses. And Frank Lampard eventually reverted to a more cautious style with his full backs, which ultimately may have been a pretty big factor in the lethargic football that saw an end to his Stamford Bridge career.
Now Tuchel has come in and made a pretty big statement by making Hudson-Odoi a big part of his attacking identity. And James was the early loser in that change. But he’s moved back into the lineup in the most recent games, and despite the fact that uncertainty is bad for business, I expect him to stay there.
So if we couple the idea of James as a wing-back, a role he has some familiarity with from his youth football days, and the fact his points were likely a little below where they should’ve been in the first half for all his attacking play, this profiles as a great buy opportunity. If there’s a chance of him coming cheap due to role question marks and depressed output, I’d be all over it. If Tuchel is able to keep the magic that he’s started with going, this is a player with the potential to hit #1 defender heights, over the remainder of the season. It’s unlikely that he commands a price tag close to that in a lot of leagues. And that’s why he’s making a repeat appearance in the “Buy” category.
Sell Jorginho (Value Index Score: 140; Last 5: 11.9)
On the flip side of Chelsea’s new game plan… Jorginho’s had a bit of a resurgence the last few weeks, providing good output for anyone that has streamed him through Thomas Tuchel’s first set of games. He struggled for game time under Frank Lampard, yet under Tuchel has started 4, played 90 minutes in all 4 and has put out scores of (15.5, 19, 12.5 and 6). So why sell?
Two reasons:
Penalties are the main reason Jorginho has multiple scores above 10. There is value in this role, for sure. But we can’t rely on Chelsea winning a penalty every game, to prop up this value.
We have some evidence of what it looks like when Jorginho is the main man in the midfield from a Fantrax perspective, from his first season in the league, where he was the lynch-pin of Sarri’s midfield. He output 5.2 PPG in that season. Is there a strong reason to suspect that he’s going to double that output? I would say it is unlikely.
Outwardly, I’d be looking to make a case for him being the next Bruno, with penalties taking him to the elite tier of midfielder. Internally, I’d be looking to see if I can pull in a 9-10 PPS player in exchange. This house is built on sand, not bricks.
Sell Tyrone Mings (Current Value Index Score: 115; Last 5: 7.7)
Look, I don’t know what was in the water at Villa Park between Project Restart and the start of 2021. I have my suspicions:
But what kept Villa in the Premier League last year was not Jack Grealish. Yes, he made a huge difference. But it was the remarkable turnaround of the defense that was most notable in Villa’s post-Covid performances. It was head-turning stuff. And seemed destined to be written off as just a fluke.
Then they entered the season, added Ross Barkley and Bertrand Traore to the lineup (neither player known for their defensive workrate) and yet still they were putting up points. Mings’s PPG in standard scoring is sitting at 12.5. But it’s trending downwards.
As Jack Grealish has continued to reach super-star level heights, the defense has found themselves falling back down to Earth a little. And it’s not surprising at all. Of Mings’ most recent performances, only CS have gotten him over 10 points. And although there are some prime fixtures coming up in Mings’ future, this one feels like an example of a player that should be sold whilst he has residual value from his monstrous early season games.
I’m not giving him up for nothing, as he’s still got streamer value (particularly in the easy fixture run) but I’m also not relying on him for 12 points a game at this point. So can I use him to get back someone who is consistently around the 7-10 PPG mark? If so, I’m doing that deal before the other manager realises they’ve been fleeced.
And that’s it for another edition. As always, find me on Twitter if you’ve got specific comments and hit subscribe to always get the latest content into your inboxes and to never miss anything that’s put out!